Sportsbooks Dominate NFL Betting Market as Prediction Platforms Gain Traction

19 September 2026

As the 2026-27 NFL season kicks off, the betting industry is seeing a significant shift in wagering activity. Regulated sportsbooks remain the top players, but prediction markets are making notable gains.

The Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) group estimated NFL wagering to hit a record $40 billion this season, according to sports figures published by CNBC. Of that, regulated sportsbooks are projected to take in $31.7 billion in handle, an 8% year-over-year increase from their $29.4 billion handle in 2025-26, CNBC reported.

That represents nearly four out of every five dollars wagered on the NFL, as sportsbooks continue to dominate the market. But there is an emerging challenger–prediction markets.

Prediction markets, which offer a more decentralized and democratic way for fans and bettors to predict and trade on the outcome of events, are gaining traction and could see $8.4 billion in total wagering activity, per EKG estimates. That accounts for 21% of the combined NFL sports betting market.

Prediction Markets Drive Growth in New Betting Markets

So why are prediction markets on the rise?

Prediction markets operate in a regulatory gray area, allowing them to tap into states where sports betting has either been banned or has not yet launched. With no need for a physical presence in a market, prediction platforms can attract a wide geographic scope.

"We believe prediction markets are really resonating with new bettors, especially in states where sports betting is a bit more difficult to access," said Chris Grove, senior vice president of Eilers & Krejcik. "Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have really captured a lot of the market's current growth."

This growth in player numbers is showing up in the numbers.

Prediction marketplace Kalshi reported record U.S. app downloads and trading volume during the NFL season kickoff. The company saw 602,000 app downloads during opening week, according to figures from Piper Sandler. Prediction market Polymarket led all apps with 755,000 U.S. downloads, according to Piper Sandler.

This represents a 2,600% gain in users over the comparable period in 2025, when Kalshi took in just 20,000 downloads, Piper Sandler reported.

It also reflects a wider trend, with bettors wagering $702 million with Kalshi alone in Week 1, the company and ESPN reported.

Combining wagering on standard played outrights over full games and their proprietary NFL "double down" combination bets, that figure rises to over $1 billion, which implies a very similar business model to the parlay-building that powers the sportsbook space.

Both Kalshi and Polymarket were again the two market leaders, generating 72% of the contract volume tracked by Piper Sandler.

In contrast, the U.S. sportsbook industry saw a 20% year-over-year gain in New York in Week 1, with $595 million being wagered there.

GeoComply recorded a record 8,619 transactions per second on Sunday, per ESPN, which also reports that NFL Week 1 saw more daily active users at the online sportsbooks than the World Cup did at its peak, according to Apptopia.

Prediction platforms are copying the parlay model, and Piper Sandler said combination contracts now represent the majority of Kalshi’s volume.

Combining Options with Football Contracts

Now, prediction markets are offering more specialized products for options traders, to expand their market.

More on this is available via www.onlinecasinotips.net.

The most popular new feature is the "combination contract". A combo lets players trade on the combined results of multiple games.

If a player is bullish on, say, the Dallas Cowboys, Oregon State, and Florida, but does not want or cannot absorb the risk of trading all three outrights, they could buy one combo contract that pays out with a binary YES if all three games end with the home teams winning.

It combines the optionality investors know from the financial markets with binary-NFL betting. And it lets them trade with less capital while diversifying their exposure. Combinations represent the majority of Kalshi's volume, Piper Sandler reports, and can let players compound their odds to one in 10,000 or worse.

This product has let Kalshi scale rapidly—since those new contracts were first introduced, their total contract volume has grown significantly. Per the latest figures from Piper Sandler, the total US market for all Football Contracts on Kalshi hit $1.93 billion on the most recent tracked day. This figure represents a commercial-scale leap from last week's $478.8 million, according to the figures.

Polymarket took a second place spot, with its NFL contract trading action rising to $403.6 million from $123.7 million, according to Piper Sandler.

Kalshi Chairman Luke Aidematovic said in the latest report that "more users than ever are engaging with our platform and participating in the evolving world of sports betting."

Meanwhile, smaller platforms Novig and Underdog are also gaining traction. Novig recently launched a "Just Sports" campaign, featuring actress and influencer Sydney Sweeney, who said she has taken an equity stake in the platform, according to CNBC.

Novig and Underdog said per the latest figures, they generated $43 million and $26.5 million in trading volume, respectively, as of the last tracked day, according to Piper Sandler.

Sportsbooks Fighting Back

So how are sportsbooks responding to the new challenge? They've simplified their retail environments to put the focus on their parlay functionality, so bettors can better compete with prediction markets in the parlay space.

They've also increased their marketing spend, partnerships, and app engagement to attract new players and grow their existing market share.

"That's a bit of a wake-up call and a very clear sign that sportsbooks can't rest on their laurels," said Chris Grove of Eilers & Krejcik.

Still, there's competition even within the sportsbook space. In New York, casino operators MGB Resorts, Paragon Casino Resort, and Rivers Casino said the state's share of gross gaming revenue hit $595 million in the opening week of the NFL season from $495.7 million in 2025, figures compiled by the New York State Gaming Commission.

In Nevada, all sportsbooks are also part of casinos, but no state is yet reporting their full returns for the period.

For now, however, prediction markets are only creeping into regulated sportsbook territory, with only a handful of smaller sportsbooks adopting prediction market technologies.

Ten sportsbooks are employing fractional markets, according to a January 2026 Washington Post report. And CG Technology, a betting business, intends to triple its forecasting resources and personnel in the next 12 months.

Still, EKG expects prediction markets to take more direct fights with sportsbooks by the end of the year. Chris Grove said prediction markets are currently growing the overall market, but expects more direct competition by the time the market reaches the Super Bowl.